Application of natural language processing to predict final recommendation of Brazilian health technology assessment reports.

INTRODUCTION: Health technology assessment (HTA) plays a vital role in healthcare decision-making globally, necessitating the identification of key factors impacting evaluation outcomes due to the significant workload faced by HTA agencies. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to predict the approval status of evaluations conducted by the Brazilian Committee for Health Technology Incorporation (CONITEC) using natural language processing (NLP). METHODS: Data encompassing CONITEC's official report summaries from 2012 to 2022. Textual data was tokenized for NLP analysis. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator, logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, neural network, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), were evaluated for accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) score, precision, and recall. Cluster analysis using the k-modes algorithm categorized entries into two clusters (approved, rejected). RESULTS: The neural network model exhibited the highest accuracy metrics (precision at 0.815, accuracy at 0.769, ROC AUC at 0.871, and recall at 0.746), followed by XGBoost model. The lexical analysis uncovered linguistic markers, like references to international HTA agencies' experiences and government as demandant, potentially influencing CONITEC's decisions. Cluster and XGBoost analyses emphasized that approved evaluations mainly concerned drug assessments, often government-initiated, while non-approved ones frequently evaluated drugs, with the industry as the requester. CONCLUSIONS: NLP model can predict health technology incorporation outcomes, opening avenues for future research using HTA reports from other agencies. This model has the potential to enhance HTA system efficiency by offering initial insights and decision-making criteria, thereby benefiting healthcare experts.

Clinical effectiveness of screening for age-related macular degeneration: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is an eye disease that occurs in patients over 50 years old. Early diagnosis enables timely treatment to stabilize disease progression. However, the fact that the disease is asymptomatic in its early stages can delay treatment until it progresses. As such, screening in specific contexts can be an early detection tool to reduce the clinical and social impact of the disease. OBJECTIVE: Assess the effectiveness of screening methods for early detection of AMD in adults aged 50 years or older. METHODS: A systematic review of comparative observational studies on AMD screening methods in those aged 50 years or older, compared with no screening or any other strategy. A literature search was conducted in the MEDLINE (via PubMed), Embase, Cochrane Library and Lilacs database. RESULTS: A total of 5,290 studies were identified, three of which met the inclusion criteria and were selected for the systematic review. A total of 8,733 individuals (16,780 eyes) were included in the analysis. The screening methods assessed were based on optical coherence tomography (OCT) compared with color fundus photography, and OCT and telemedicine testing compared to a standard eye exam. CONCLUSION: The systematized data are limited and only suggest satisfactory performance in early screening of the population at risk of developing AMD. OCT and the telemedicine technique showed promising results in AMD screening. However, methodological problems were identified in the studies selected and the level of evidence was considered low.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cinacalcet vs. paricalcitol in the treatment of hyperparathyroidism secondary to chronic kidney disease / Análise de custo-efetividade do cinacalcete vs. paricalcitol no tratamento do hiperparatireoidismo secundário à doença renal crônica

ABSTRACT Introduction For the reduction of PTH levels, two classes of drugs are available in the Brazilian market: non-selective and selective vitamin D receptor activators and calcimimetics. Among the mentioned drugs, the SUS provides oral calcitriol, paricalcitol and cinacalcet. Objectives: Develop cost-effectiveness (CE) and budgetary impact (BI) analysis of cinacalcet versus paricalcitol for patients on dialysis with SHPT, from the perspective of SUS. Methodology: A decision tree model was constructed for CE analysis, which considered the outcome of avoided parathyroidectomy and a time horizon of 1 year. As for the BI analysis, two scenarios were considered, one of which was measured demand and other epidemiological, based on data from the Brazilian Society of Nephrology (BSN). Results: The CE analysis showed that the use of cinacalcet results in one-off savings of R$1,394.64 per year and an incremental effectiveness of 0.08, in relation to avoided parathyroidectomy. The incremental CE ratio (ICER) was - R$ 17,653.67 per avoided parathyroidectomy for cinacalcet, as it was more effective and cheaper compared to paricalcitol. As for the BI analysis, it was estimated that the incremental BI with the expansion of the use of cinacalcet in the SUS will be between - R$ 1,640,864.62 and R$ 166,368.50 in the first year, considering the main and the epidemiological scenarios. At the end of 5 years after the expansion of use, an BI was estimated between - R$ 10,740,743.86 and - R$ 1,191,339.37; considering the same scenarios. Conclusion: Cinacalcet was dominant to avoid parathyroidectomies, being cost-effective.

RESUMO Introdução: Para a redução dos níveis do paratormônio (PTH) estão disponíveis no mercado brasileiro duas classes de medicamentos: ativadores do receptor da vitamina D (não seletivos e seletivos) e calcimiméticos. Dentre os medicamentos supracitados, o SUS disponibiliza calcitriol oral, paricalcitol e cinacalcete. Objetivos: Desenvolver análise de custo-efetividade (CE) e de impacto orçamentário (IO) do cinacalcete versus paricalcitol para pacientes em diálise com HPTS, na perspectiva do SUS. Metodologia: Foi construído um modelo de árvore de decisão para a análise de CE, que considerou o desfecho paratireoidectomia evitada e um horizonte temporal de 1 ano. Quanto à análise de IO, foram considerados dois cenários, um de demanda aferida e outro de abordagem epidemiológica, baseado nos dados da Sociedade Brasileira de Nefrologia (SBN). Resultados: A análise de CE mostrou que o uso de cinacalcete resulta em economia de R$ 1.394,64 ao ano e efetividade incremental de 0,08, em relação a paratireoidectomia evitada. A razão de CE incremental (RCEI) foi de - R$ 17.653,67 por paratireoidectomia evitada para o cinacalcete, já que se mostrou mais efetivo e mais barato comparado ao paricalcitol. Estimou-se que o IO incremental com a ampliação do uso do cinacalcete no SUS estará entre - R$ 1.640.864,62 e R$ 166.368,50 no primeiro ano, considerando os cenários principal e epidemiológico baseado nos dados da SBN. Já ao final de 5 anos após a ampliação do uso, estimou-se um impacto incremental entre - R$ 10.740.743,86 e - R$ 1.191.339,37; considerando os mesmos cenários. Conclusão: Cinacalcete foi dominante para evitar paratireoidectomias, sendo custo-efetivo.

Exploring the COVID-19 Pandemic's Impact on the Health Technology Assessment Process of the National Commission for the Incorporation of Technologies Into the Brazilian Health System.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Brazilian health technology assessment processes based on public reports from the National Committee for Health Technology Incorporation (CONITEC). METHODS: This descriptive study analyzed CONITEC's official reports on Brazil available on its website between 2018 and 2021 that aimed to propose recommendations for technologies to be incorporated into its public healthcare system. We used descriptive statistics covering the number of technologies and number of reports about drugs per year, objective, type of technology, demanding sector, and outcome before 2018 to 2019 and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021). Furthermore, we used logistic regression to explore any association between the final decision labeled as "incorporated" and the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: A total of 278 reports were analyzed. Approximately 85% (136 of 278), 79% (220 of 278), and 45% of the reports (125 of 278) were about drugs, for incorporation, and requested by the government, respectively. Moreover, 74 of 130 (57%) and 56 of 148 decisions (38%) were "incorporated" before and during the pandemic, respectively. No significant association was noted between incorporated decisions and the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic for all technologies (odds ratio 1.43; 95% CI 0.84-2.46; P = .192) and for drugs (odds ratio 1.43; 95% confidence interval 0.81-2.53; P = .223) while adjusting for the type of technology and demandant. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought many challenges, but it does not seem to have had a significant impact on the health technology assessment approval decisions of CONITEC in Brazil.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cinacalcet vs. paricalcitol in the treatment of hyperparathyroidism secondary to chronic kidney disease.

INTRODUCTION: For the reduction of PTH levels, two classes of drugs are available in the Brazilian market: non-selective and selective vitamin D receptor activators and calcimimetics. Among the mentioned drugs, the SUS provides oral calcitriol, paricalcitol and cinacalcet. OBJECTIVES: Develop cost-effectiveness (CE) and budgetary impact (BI) analysis of cinacalcet versus paricalcitol for patients on dialysis with SHPT, from the perspective of SUS. METHODOLOGY: A decision tree model was constructed for CE analysis, which considered the outcome of avoided parathyroidectomy and a time horizon of 1 year. As for the BI analysis, two scenarios were considered, one of which was measured demand and other epidemiological, based on data from the Brazilian Society of Nephrology (BSN). RESULTS: The CE analysis showed that the use of cinacalcet results in one-off savings of R$1,394.64 per year and an incremental effectiveness of 0.08, in relation to avoided parathyroidectomy. The incremental CE ratio (ICER) was - R$ 17,653.67 per avoided parathyroidectomy for cinacalcet, as it was more effective and cheaper compared to paricalcitol. As for the BI analysis, it was estimated that the incremental BI with the expansion of the use of cinacalcet in the SUS will be between - R$ 1,640,864.62 and R$ 166,368.50 in the first year, considering the main and the epidemiological scenarios. At the end of 5 years after the expansion of use, an BI was estimated between - R$ 10,740,743.86 and - R$ 1,191,339.37; considering the same scenarios. CONCLUSION: Cinacalcet was dominant to avoid parathyroidectomies, being cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of intravenous paricalcitol vs. oral calcitriol in the treatment of hyperparathyroidism secondary to chronic kidney disease / Análise de custo-efetividade do paricalcitol intravenoso vs. calcitriol oral no tratamento do hiperparatireoidismo secundário à doença renal crônica

Abstract Introduction: Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) secondary to chronic kidney disease (CKD) is characterized by high levels of parathyroid hormone (PTH), hyperplasia of the parathyroid glands and cardiovascular disease. Selective and non-selective and selective vitamin D-receptor activators, calcimimetics, are available in the Brazilian market to reduce PTH levels. Objectives: To develop a cost-effectiveness (C/E) and budgetary impact (BI) analysis of intravenous paricalcitol vs. oral calcitriol for patients on dialysis with SHPT, from the perspective of the Brazilian Public Health Care System (SUS). Methodology: We built a decision-tree model to analyze C/E, which considered the outcome of avoided death and a time horizon of 1 year. As for the BI analysis, two scenarios were considered, one of demand and one of epidemiological approach, based on data from the Brazilian Society of Nephrology. Results: The analysis showed that the C/E ratio was R$ 1,213.68 per year, and an incremental effectiveness of 0.032, referring to avoided death. The incremental C/E ratio was R$37,927.50 per death averted by paricalcitol. It was estimated that the incremental BI with the expansion of paricalcitol use will be between R$1,600,202.28 and R$4,128,565.65 in the first year, considering the main and epidemiological scenarios. At the end of 5 years after the expansion of its use, an incremental BI was estimated between R$ 48,596,855.50 and R$ 62,90,555.73. Conclusion: Intravenous paricalcitol has superior efficacy and similar safety to oral calcitriol, reducing the overall mortality of dialysis patients, although it implies a higher cost.

Resumo Introdução: O hiperparatireoidismo secundário (HPTS) à doença crônica renal (DRC) é caracterizado por elevados níveis de paratormônio (PTH), hiperplasia das glândulas paratireoides e doença cardiovascular. Para a redução dos níveis do PTH, estão disponíveis no mercado brasileiro os ativadores não seletivos e seletivos do receptor da vitamina D e os calcimiméticos. Objetivos: Desenvolver análise de custo-efetividade (C/E) e de impacto orçamentário (IO) do paricalcitol intravenoso vs. calcitriol oral para pacientes em diálise com HPTS, na perspectiva do Sistema Único de Saúde. Metodologia: Foi construído um modelo de árvore de decisão para a análise de C/E, que considerou o desfecho morte evitada e um horizonte temporal de 1 ano. Quanto à análise de IO, foram considerados dois cenários, sendo um de demanda aferida e um de abordagem epidemiológica, baseado nos dados da Sociedade Brasileira de Nefrologia. Resultados: A análise mostrou que a relação de C/E foi de R$ 1.213,68 ao ano, e uma efetividade incremental de 0,032, referente à morte evitada. A razão de C/E incremental foi de R$ 37.927,50 por morte evitada para o paricalcitol. Estimou-se que o IO incremental com a ampliação do uso do paricalcitol estará entre R$ 1.600.202,28 e R$ 4.128.565,65 no primeiro ano, considerando os cenários principal e o epidemiológico. Já no fim de 5 anos após a ampliação do uso, estimou-se IO incremental entre R$ 48.596.855,50 e R$ 62.90.555,73. Conclusão: O paricalcitol intravenoso tem eficácia superior e segurança semelhante ao comparador calcitriol oral, diminuindo a mortalidade geral dos pacientes em diálise, embora implique maior custo.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of intravenous paricalcitol vs. oral calcitriol in the treatment of hyperparathyroidism secondary to chronic kidney disease.

INTRODUCTION: Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) secondary to chronic kidney disease (CKD) is characterized by high levels of parathyroid hormone (PTH), hyperplasia of the parathyroid glands and cardiovascular disease. Selective and non-selective and selective vitamin D-receptor activators, calcimimetics, are available in the Brazilian market to reduce PTH levels. OBJECTIVES: To develop a cost-effectiveness (C/E) and budgetary impact (BI) analysis of intravenous paricalcitol vs. oral calcitriol for patients on dialysis with SHPT, from the perspective of the Brazilian Public Health Care System (SUS). METHODOLOGY: We built a decision-tree model to analyze C/E, which considered the outcome of avoided death and a time horizon of 1 year. As for the BI analysis, two scenarios were considered, one of demand and one of epidemiological approach, based on data from the Brazilian Society of Nephrology. RESULTS: The analysis showed that the C/E ratio was R$ 1,213.68 per year, and an incremental effectiveness of 0.032, referring to avoided death. The incremental C/E ratio was R$37,927.50 per death averted by paricalcitol. It was estimated that the incremental BI with the expansion of paricalcitol use will be between R$1,600,202.28 and R$4,128,565.65 in the first year, considering the main and epidemiological scenarios. At the end of 5 years after the expansion of its use, an incremental BI was estimated between R$ 48,596,855.50 and R$ 62,90,555.73. CONCLUSION: Intravenous paricalcitol has superior efficacy and similar safety to oral calcitriol, reducing the overall mortality of dialysis patients, although it implies a higher cost.

Direct cost of systemic arterial hypertension and its complications in the circulatory system from the perspective of the Brazilian public health system in 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Systemic arterial hypertension (SAH), a global public health problem and the primary risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, has a significant financial impact on health systems. In Brazil, the prevalence of SAH is 23.7%, which caused 203,000 deaths and 3.9 million DALYs in 2015. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost of SAH and circulatory system diseases attributable to SAH from the perspective of the Brazilian public health system in 2019. METHODS: A prevalence-based cost-of-illness was conducted using a top-down approach. The population attributable risk (PAR) was used to estimate the proportion of circulatory system diseases attributable to SAH. The direct medical costs were obtained from official Ministry of Health of Brazil records and literature parameters, including the three levels of care (primary, secondary, and tertiary). Deterministic univariate analyses were also conducted. RESULTS: The total cost of SAH and the proportion of circulatory system diseases attributable to SAH was Int$ 581,135,374.73, varying between Int$ 501,553,022.21 and Int$ 776,183,338.06. In terms only of SAH costs at all healthcare levels (Int$ 493,776,445.89), 97.3% were incurred in primary care, especially for antihypertensive drugs provided free of charge by the Brazilian public health system (Int$ 363,888,540.14). Stroke accounted for the highest cost attributable to SAH and the third highest PAR, representing 47% of the total cost of circulatory diseases attributable to SAH. Prevalence was the parameter that most affected sensitivity analyses, accounting for 36% of all the cost variation. CONCLUSION: Our results show that the main Brazilian strategy to combat SAH was implemented in primary care, namely access to free antihypertensive drugs and multiprofessional teams, acting jointly to promote care and prevent and control SAH.